Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2001

FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING
DESPITE SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN ETA/NGM/AVN PROGS. CURRENT STABLE
AIRMASS WITH WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HANDLED DECENTLY BY
PROGS AT THE MOMENT. WHILE ETA REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE OF PROGS WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF WARM FRONT INTO CWA WITH TIME...FEEL THAT
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL SLOW
FRONT/S PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AVN
SOLUTION OF FRONTAL PLACEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS ALLOWS
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TO BE MENTIONED IN ZONES WITH
EASTERN PARTS OF CWA FORECAST TO REMAIN RAINFREE FOR THE MORNING
HOURS.

IN THE FAR TERM...PROGS PULL FRONT ACROSS CWA...THEN STALL IT BY
TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER WIND FLOW.
MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW RIDES ALONG BOUNDARY FROM MINNESOTA INTO
WISCONSIN WITH TIME. THIS SETS UP AN UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
CWA WITH TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKESHORE AREAS. FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR PERIODIC CONVECTION
DEPENDENT NOT ONLY ON DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ALSO MYRIAD OF MINOR
SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP MODERATELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIKE DESCRIPTION OF SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
INCREASING INSTABILITY AROUND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE A GIVEN...BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER IMPULSES LESS OBVIOUS.

COORDINATED WITH GRB AND LSE.

.MKX...NONE.

ZAJDEL

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-141700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
600 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2001

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
...FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

THREAT...
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND THIS MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.