Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
135 PM EST SUN APR 1 2001

WILL TRY TO GET THIS OUT BEFORE IT GETS TOO BUSY HERE WITH SEVERE
TSTMS. EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF WARNINGS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR AND SATELLITE. HAVE REQUESTED
SATELLITE RAPID SCAN OPERATIONS AND IT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z.

WITH VERY STRONG VORT...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...AND H5 TEMPS -20
TO -26 MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA SEVERE TSTMS A GOOD BET FOR S PART OF
CWA WHERE H3 JET OF 130 KT WILL BE TRAVERSING. LOOKS LIKE PRETTY
DECENT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND A NICE DAY TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPS...NGM GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN MAV FOR TOMORROW NIGHT
OTHERWISE GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE. WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER MAV
TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXTENDED...CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A CHANCE OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. A NICE
WARMUP UPCOMING THIS WEEK AS TEMPS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S
OVER INLAND AREAS BY SATURDAY.

CWF: FPSN7 COMING UP NICELY AS FORECASTED WITH TIGHTENING OF
GRADIENT. STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DEEPENING AND BEGINNING ITS MOVE TO THE EAST NOW. MODELS
CONSISTENT AND GENERALLY SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM. DIVERGENCE OF
MODEL OUTPUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CONCERNING TIMING AND DIRECTION OF
WINDSHIFT. WILL LEAN TOWARD AVN SOLUTION FOR THAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL
PICK UP TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW...AND WILL GO WITH
SCA FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL BACK OFF BY TOMORROW AS THE LOW SCOOTS
OFF TO THE ENE...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

.MHX...SCA ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.

PUBLIC/FIRE...SHAFFER
AVIATION......COLLINS
MARINE........NAGLE

J

NCZ079-090>095-098-012200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
1136 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE...WILL PRODUCE AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR SNOW HILL TO VANCEBORO TO CEDAR ISLAND. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

LARGE HAIL ..AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NETWORK ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY.  LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

WS