Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2001

AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVR OK WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVR TO S. IL
MONDAY MORNING.  A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS WILL MOVE OVR THE
MS RIVER AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED TODAY AND LIFTED
INDEXES WILL RISE TO -2 TO -4 ACCORDING THE ETA AND NR -6 W/ THE
AVN. ETA BEING THE SLOWEST W/ THE COLD FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO
MATCH UP MORE W/ SPC RISK AREA FOR TOMORROW. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA MID-DAY TOMORROW AND CLEAR THE FA BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AVN HAS BEEN THE FASTER MODEL W/ THE FRONT BUT NOW
MERGING CLOSER W/ THE OTHERS. WILL GO CLOSER W/ THE ETA SOLUTION.
FURTHER ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVR THE FA OVERNIGHT AND BE OUT
OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND 6Z TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT
X-SECTIONS...DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TEMPS...NGM BEING THE WARMEST AFTER 1ST PERIOD AND MAV/EXTENDED
GUIDANCE NUMBERS VERY SIMILAR..BUT MAV BEING THE COLDEST. WILL BE
LOWER THAN THE NGM AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV NUMBERS.

NGM AGAIN BEING THE OUTLIERS W/ POPS IN 4TH PERIOD...MAV/ETA DRY.
WILL GO ALONG WITH THAT. BUT DO EXPECT SHRA ACTIVITY TO HANG AROUND
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE 3RD PERIOD...AS SUGGESTED BY
AVN/ETA.

PRELIM NUMBERS...STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE ON POPS.

MEM TB 066/086/068/072  03661
MKL TB 062/084/066/071  02661
JBR TB 064/084/065/070  03761
TUP TB 063/086/067/074  01s661

.MEG...NONE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-202300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2001

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...EAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE AREA IS ALONG
AND WEST OF A JONESBORO TO FORREST CITY TO MARVELL LINE.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TENNESSEE...TO
BOLIVAR...TO OXFORD...TO NEAR GRENADA MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF JACKSON...MEMPHIS...DYERSBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...CLARKSDALE
AND HELENA.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE OVER
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO ILLINOIS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD
FRONT INTO EAST ARKANSAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH ON MONDAY.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...TELEVISION AND CABLE
TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.