Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
245 AM CST THU NOV 29 2001

WIDESPREAD FLOOD EVENT CONTINUES...MUCH OF CWA HAS SEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF RAIN PAST 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM TO GO TODAY.
ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
NEAR RIO GRANDE RIVER...AND SHOULD BE NEAR MEM BY 30/00Z.

STILL HAVE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS AT LEAST
WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM. WILL ISSUE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND
FLOOD STATEMENT...UPDATING WATCH INFORMATION...WILL LET WATCH RIDE
TILL 30/00Z...PER CURRENT FORECAST.

ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...LIKELY FOR EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
DRY TOMORROW. SEE NO MAJOR REASONS TO QUIBBLE WITH GUIDANCE AFTER
THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. WILL NEED TO BUMP UP TEMPS IN EXTENDED BY AT
LEAST ONE CATEGORY. 10

PRELIM NUMBERS....

MEM TB 053/040 054/042 059 +601
MKL TB 055/041 053/039 057 +601
JBR TB 043/037 052/039 055 +601
TUP TB 067/043 054/040 059 +601

.MEG...FLOOD WATCH TODAY ENTIRE CWA.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-291800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CST THU NOV 29 2001

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...EAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS A
SMALL PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
SAVANNAH...TO BOLIVAR TENNESSEE...TO BATESVILLE MISSISSIPPI...TO
SUMNER.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS
EAST OF A LINE FROM PIGGOTT...TO JONESBORO...TO WYNNE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A FRONT WAS STATIONARY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
MORNING.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH THE
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS...ISOLATED...DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
CONDITIONS ALREADY OCCURRING...AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER GROUPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE
ACTIVATED LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.