Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
223 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2001

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH SRN HALF OF FA.
ANALYSIS SHOWING IT SOMEWHERE NEAR A SAVANNAH TO CLARKSDALE LINE.
MID AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NWRN HALF OF AREA
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. NQA 88D SHOWING 1 OR 2 SHRAS TRYING TO GET
GOING ALONG FRONT. MAY HAVE TO THROW A SLGT POP IN TO COVER ANY
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN
MOST COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SLOWLY FILTER IN
NRN MS. WITH CLEAR SKIS AND WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO AREA DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SETTING UP. TEMPS MAY EVEN APPROACH A FEW
RECORDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH RECORD LOWS AT JBR 59 AND DYR 58.
PLENTY OF SUN AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FCST. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN INCREASING BY THEN AND CENTER OF SFC HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF AREA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS INTO
THE MO VALLEY MODELS INDICATE AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVER MO MON NIGHT. FOR NOW THREAT OF PCPN MAKING IT INTO NRN
SXNS OF FA DOES NOT LOOK GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A POP BUT WILL
CHANGE CURRENT FCST WORDING TO PTLY CLOUDY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE CLOUDINESS. REMAINDER OF WEEK LOOKS DRY AND HOT WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF AREA.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MEM 67/90/69/92 000-
MKL 59/88/63/90 000-
JBR 60/89/66/92 000-
TUP 66/90/66/92 100-

.MEG...NONE.

MZ