Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

SHRA/TSRA NOW SCATTERED ABOUT ON KNQA 88D WITH MORE TSRA SPREADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE JAN CWFA. OBVIOUSLY WILL NEED AN EVENING POP
AREAWIDE AS STORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD. WILL TREND HIGHER POPS SOUTH TO
LOW NORTH. STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND ALREADY
HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE A BIT TO THE SOUTH. WARM FRONT NOW WELL
NORTH OF THE FA...LEAVING VERY MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA (THE FIRST
70+ DEWPOINTS OF THE SEASON?). FEEL FACTOR OUTSIDE IS BAD WITH 92
TEMP/76 DEWPOINT AT 3 PM AT MEM.

THIS SAME PATTERN SETS UP FOR TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING
UP WITH THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO GO CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY MOST AREAS
AS NOTHING REALLY CHANGES ATMOSPHERIC-WISE COMPARED TO TODAY...AND
PLENTY OF OLD BOUNDARIES WILL BE AROUND AS WELL.

BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...DROPPING DEWPOINTS A GOOD 10 DEGREES (THANKFULLY) WITH
PASSAGE AND ENDING THE RAIN THREAT FOR A WHILE. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH DAY 7. MRF INDICATES THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN IN
SEMI-NWRLY FLOW DAY 7...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TEMPS IN MRF. MOS AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCT DO NOT
AGREE FOR SATURDAY...WITH GRAPHICS INDICATING MORE OF A COOLDOWN.
SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST THAT DAY HOWEVER...WILL
LEAVE EXTENDED AS IS AT THIS TIME.

PRELIM DIGITS...(VERY PRELIM FIRST PERIOD)
MEM  74/89/72/84  4327
MKL  72/87/69/83  2326
JBR  71/88/70/83  2225
TUP  72/88/71/81  6537

.MEG...NONE.

JE/23