Severe Thunderstorm Warning 423, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
324 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2001

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH
OF ARKANSAS WITH A FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S AND INCREASING. WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND SPREAD THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS
FURTHER NORTH. COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WITH A DRY LINE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

AS SITUATION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
WESTERN ARKANSAS BY 00Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD. SPC CONTINUES THE
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT. LATEST KLZK SOUNDING
SHOWS EXCELLENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED.
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS
ARKANSAS. NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA LOOK TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE STRONG SHEAR ALSO GIVES GOOD CHANCES FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN
THE NORTH SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP TIL LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BY 12Z SATURDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN THIRD OF ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

SHOULD BE DRY TIL MONDAY NIGHT THEN. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

.LIT...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT NORTH...ZONES 003>007-012>015
       LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT CENTRAL
       ZONES 16-21>25-30>34-37>47-54>57

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-232300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
150 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA...
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRY LINE WILL ACCLERATE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

PERSONS ACROSS ARKANSAS SHOULD REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
PLANS. STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGERS WILL LIKELY BE ACTIVATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ARZ003-004-012-013-021-022-030-037-038-040-041-052-053-240200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2001

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 811 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.

STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL RACE NORTHEAST AS STRONG JET STREAM WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN ARKANSAS
BY 7 OR 8 PM. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
INTO A LINE...AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

54