Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2001

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS TEND TO MOVE IT SOUTH THIS MORNING THEN KEEP IT AROUND
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY BEFORE IT MOVES OR RELOCATES TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME MOISTURE IS INDICATED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A THETA-E AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGGED 500 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10 WHICH IS COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IN THIS AREA. ALL THIS LEADS TO UNSTABLE AIR AND WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY IN THE AREA, LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONTAINED
TO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST EVENINGS STORMS. HOWEVER, SEE A THREAT IN THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS
TIME, SO WILL PUT IN 20 PERCENT POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. AS THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTING NORTH TONIGHT, WILL NOT CARRY POPS INTO
TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE NORTH. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND BOUNDARIES SET UP...CHANCES ARE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 00Z. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION ZONE IS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD PUT A CAP ON THINGS FOR THIS CWA, BUT 500 MB AND
700 MB TEMPS ARE STILL NOT AS HIGH AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM TO
BE ASSURED A CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR TUESDAY
AT THIS TIME, BUT AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT OF THAT YET. WILL GO CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE ON MAXES FOR TODAY. MINS TONIGHT LIKELY WILL BE
HIGHER AS FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WARM HUMID AIR RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
IN THE AREA. MAXES TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN TODAY.

.LIT...NONE