Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
301 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2001

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST BY MODELS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT A
LITTLE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE UNDERWAY ALREADY
AS DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL HAS BEGUN TO
PUSH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGINNING
TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AR.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE HEAT ADVISORY. WFO SGF WILL
CARRY A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THEIR NEIGHBORING ZONES...SO WILL EXPAND
OUR CURRENT ADVISORY TO ENCOMPASS FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THESE AREAS
HAVE BEEN AMONG THE HOTTEST DURING THE DAY...BUT AMONG THE COOLEST
AT NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO VALLEY EFFECTS...AS WELL AS DRYING
SOILS AND VEGETATION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH TIME
IN THE EASTERN ZONES AS THESE AREAS BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CLOUD
DEBRIS AND/OR PRECIP. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER...BUT STILL ONLY
LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY...IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK nINTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING FORECAST TRENDS OF DRYING OUT AND
HEATING BACK UP BY MIDWEEK.

.LIT...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

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