Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2001

MCS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AND
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING ON SATELLITE. UNDOUBTEDLY, THIS WILL LEAVE
SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THIS
AFTERNOON. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COULD REACH
WESTERN PART OF CFA LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER WINDS ARE
WEAK THIS MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS AND 500 MB WIND MAX
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP BY
MIDDAY MOSTLY IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF
CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. VORTICITY PATTERN WITH SHORT WAVES IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND
MAY EVEN BE SHEARING. DUE TO THIS, HAVE HARD TIME SEEING MAJOR OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IN CWA, BUT WITH HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY OR TWO AND INCREASING WIND DYNAMICS,
COULD SEE A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL,
WIND, OR EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. THUS, WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN
FORERCAST AND WILL PLAY UP SEVERE THREAT, ESPECIALLY SINCE AREA HAS
HAD A LIGHT SEVERE WEATHER SPRING SO FAR. THREAT OF SEVERE CONTINUES
TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST, WITH A SQUALL LINE
POSSIBLE WITH THAT. POPS WILL BE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT, EXCEPT
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY, AND CONTINUE THREAT FOR
SEVERE. ISOLATED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN NEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN SHORT WAVE FROM PLAINS DOES NOT PASS AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING, SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY IN REST OF FA AND
KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING
RAIN LATE MONDAY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH AND IN MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. LIKELY WILL SEE GOOD WARMING AGAIN TODAY, BUT CLOUD DEBRIS
FROM CONVECTION WILL HOLD MINS DOWN A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. IF
THUNDERSTORMS RAGE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT, THINK MOS WILL BE TOO
HIGH ON MINS, BUT WILL NOT VENTURE TOO FAR FROM IT AS MAIN LINE OF
STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 12Z MONDAY OR LATER. WILL GO WITH LITTLE
WARMING FOR MONDAY AND WILL GO CLOSER TO MAV MOS ON MAXES.

.LIT...NONE