Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
157 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2001

HEAVY RAIN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED OVER THE CWFA. PERSISTENT BAND
OF RAIN HAS PRODUCED ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH AT THE LITTLE ROCK
AIRPORT...HERE AT THE OFFICE...AND AT SEARCY. NO HEAVIER AMOUNTS
SEEN YET...BUT THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE CWFA AS OF THIS
TYPING.

DEEPEST MOISTURE IS STILL OVER LA AND TX...WITH VALUES INCREASING
THROUGH TIME OVER AR. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING
OCCURRING IN SEVERAL SMALL AREAS OF WEAK CONVECTION. COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS REMAIN OVER SABINE RIVER SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH COLD FRONT NOT LAGGING FAR BEHIND. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING 25-35 MPH FOR ABOUT TWO HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
OK. WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTH...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD SKIRT
NORTHERN AR...WITH A GREATER THREAT FARTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP LAKE
CAUTION STATEMENTS GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST AR ON
SUNDAY...WITH NO NEED FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD KEEP SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...WHICH MAY NOT SEE THE CLOUDS.

BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE COLD WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT.
MEX GUIDANCE NUMBERS JUST KEEP GETTING LOWER AND LOWER EACH RUN. AVN
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECASTS REMAIN VERY LOW. WILD CARDS IN THE
TEMP FORECAST ARE LIKELY TO BE WINDS AND CLOUDS. CENTER OF GIANT
CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE IS NOT FORECAST TO GET THIS FAR SOUTH DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM ON ANY NIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE CERTAIN TO BE ZIPPING BY AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY IN FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOMES NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT LONGER TIME RANGES IN FAST FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN XMAS
FLURRIES FORECAST FOR FAR NORTH ARKANSAS HAS EVAPORATED AND WILL
BACK OUT OF IT. NOGAPS ENSEMBLE FORECAST...WHICH HAS DEMONSTRATED
MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE OPERATIONAL MRF
LATELY...SAYS NO PRECIP UNTIL 2002.

FIRST PERIOD CLOUDS AND POPS WILL BE HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD LAST
MINUTE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

.LZK...NONE.

54

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2001

...COLD WEATHER COMING TO ARKANSAS...

A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL INVADE ARKANSAS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF 2001. BY THE
DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10
TO 15 DEGREES IN NORTH ARKANSAS...TO NEAR 20 DEGREES IN SOUTH
ARKANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES IN NORTH
ARKANSAS...AND 35 TO 40 DEGREES IN SOUTH ARKANSAS. PARTS OF NORTH
ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AS MUCH AS FOUR DAYS.

EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES SUCH AS THESE CAN BURST UNPROTECTED
WATER PIPES...AND CAN KILL PEOPLE OR ANIMALS WITHOUT ADEQUATE
SHELTER.

PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES AGAINST THE
UPCOMING COLD WEATHER. INSULATE WATER PIPES...KEEP FAUCETS DRIPPING
DURING EXTREME COLD...AND LEAVE THE HEAT ON IN THE HOUSE IF YOU GO
ON VACATION. BE SURE PETS AND LIVESTOCK HAVE PLENTY OF FOOD AND
SHELTER...AND CHECK ON FAMILY MEMBERS OR NEIGHBORS WHO MAY NOT HAVE
ADEQUATE HEAT. THE ELDERLY...THE VERY YOUNG...AND THE SICK ARE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.