Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2001

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINING IN NORTH/WEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INCREASING IN THE SOUTH
AND EAST. IN GENERAL...RAIN NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS EXPECTED...BUT
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL HEAD INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT...MOVING FROM TEXARKANA TO AROUND MEMPHIS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE LOW...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER
SOUTH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW LOW PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY...
WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT LIGHT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE...WITH SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH FRONT...BUT WILL ADD MORE CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY...BUT
WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. (46)

.LIT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LITTLE ROCK
       COUNTY WARNING AREA...
       ARZONES 3>7-12>16-21>25-30>34-37>47-52>57-62>69

ARZ047-055>057-062>069-170100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ARKADELPHIA...TO PINE BLUFF TO MONROE.

LATE THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY INTO ARKANSAS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT.

MEANWHILE...THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL THEN
SWEEP THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR...A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PERSONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING. STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGERS COULD BE ACTIVATED THIS EVENING IF SEVERE WEATHER
MATERIALIZES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

&&

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