Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2001

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS HAS SLOWLY RECOVERED FROM THIS
MORNINGS SQUALL LINE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS BY EVENING
AND INCREASE ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT MAY EDGE INTO NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. STILL
SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT SHAPING UP MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS AND CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE NORTH WITH MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN, DECREASING
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTER RAIN
AMOUNTS. WILL GO BELOW MOS ON MINS IN THE NORTH AFTER SEEING WHAT
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT DID WITH TEMPS. MOS MINS LOOK CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH. THINK CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS, ENDING BY OR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY
FOR THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH AND MAY GO
A LITTLE BELOW MOS ON MAXES. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY AND ELSEWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST, AND WILL DELAY CLEARING IN THAT AREA AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THERE AS WELL. DRIER AIR TAKING OVER
SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTER THE UPPER TROF MOVES PAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOS MAXES FOR MONDAY LOOK
GOOD AT THIS TIME.

.LIT...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>024-030-031-037>041-090500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
850 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS UNTIL
   MIDNIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WAS NEARING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS
SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT SEPARATED VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO
ITS EAST FROM MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO ITS WEST. THE
CONTRAST IN AIR MASSES WAS MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WITH STORMS DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE WATCH INCLUDES
AREAS NORTH OF MOUNT IDA...MORRILTON AND BATESVILLE.

IN THE WATCH AREA...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO PRODUCE
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...
INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. BE READY TO FIND A PLACE OF SAFETY
IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

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