Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS: RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AND TEMPS.

LATEST SFC/MSAS DATA SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MO...BACK ACROSS
SERN KS INTO NWRN OK. CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER CNTRL
IL...WITH CU FIELD NOTED BACK TO THE SW ACROSS MO ON LATEST VIS
SATELLITE PICS. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NOW STARTING TO FORM OVER SERN KS
AND CNTRL MO.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF FRONT AND
UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU 48 HOURS. UPPER LOW OVER NERN IA IS FCST TO
MOVE SEWD AND THEN EWD OVER TIME. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THRU
MUCH OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE IT STALLS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA AND AVN FOR THIS FCST.

BIG QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS WHAT EXTENT WILL ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER MO AND OK. SFC BASED LI/S
RUNNING AROUND -8...WITH CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG
OVER SRN MO ATTM. TAIL END OF UPPER JET MAX NOW PASSING OVER NRN AR
AS INDICATED BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT. BOTH NGM AND AVN MOS SHOWING LESS THAN 20% POPS MOST AREAS.
PLAN ON PLACING 30% POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT ENTIRE FA.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT A BIT THRU THE FA.
EXPECT FROPA OVER NRN AR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THRU MUCH OF CNTRL AR
AROUND 12Z AND INTO SRN COUNTIES BY THE AFTN BEFORE IT STALLS OUT
NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS OVER THE SRN ZONES FOR
SUNDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFTS EWD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FRONT TO RETURN NWD AS
WINDS BECOME SLY. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT NOTED ON MONDAY...COULD SEE
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP...BUT FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP THE FCST DRY.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL FCST TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE SW INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO PREVAIL. BIG QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN TO WHAT IS NOW T.S. CHANTAL. AVN TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO THE
CNTRL GULF BY THU...WHILE OTHER LONG RANGE/NCEP PROGS EVENTUALLY
BRING THE SYSTEM INTO SERN TX. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
ATTM...PLAN TO STICK WITH STATUS QUO AND LEAVE FCST DRY.

THANKS TO WFO MEM FOR COORDINATION CALL.  ..44..

.LIT...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-023>025-191200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
130 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH AND PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...LOCAL TV AND
CABLE TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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