Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
235 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2001

KPBZ/KCCX RADARS SHOWING SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAGGING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SEVERAL WARNINGS COMING OUT FROM
OFFICES TO THE NORTH. 18Z ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO.

THIS COLD FRONT PROGGED BY 12Z ETA AND AVN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... AND 15Z RUC SHOWING NO DIFFERENCE
IN THE TREND. ETA AND NOW THE RUC ARE HINTING THAT THE LINE OF
STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL BREAK UP AS IT APPROACHES... DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE WIND FIELDS OVER OUR AREA ARE NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE
AS THEY ARE TO THE NORTH AND THAT MAIN SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
REMAIN OVER PA. STILL... UNSTABLE AMS IN PLACE WITH LI VALUES
CURRENTLY IN THE -5 TO -7 RANGE. CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY... WOULD EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS... WILL MENTION HARDER IN THE NORTH THAN
THE SOUTH.

CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK VERY PLEASANT. MAY SEE SOME LOWS IN THE 40S
IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS OUT WEST MONDAY NIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST... AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

DCA   63  78  61  81 /  50   0   0   0
BWI   58  78  55  81 /  40   0   0   0
MRB   57  76  51  80 /  30   0   0  10
IAD   57  78  52  81 /  40   0   0   0
CHO   64  78  55  82 /  50   0   0   0
HGR   58  75  50  79 /  30   0   0  10
NHK   64  77  58  82 /  50   0   0   0
W99   57  78  50  82 /  40   0   0  10

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

MARGRAF!

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-012130-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... WESTERN MARYLAND AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND... THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... AND THE REST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS INCLUDES THE ENTIRE WASHINGTON
DC AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT... AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... WHILE LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD
PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER. IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
THE AREA... TAKE SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MARGRAF!