Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
216 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2001

KLWX 88D OTS DUE TO FAILED PART. PART ON ORDER AND SHUD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING.

ALL THREE MDLS HV SIMILAR SOLNS THIS FCST PD.

AXIS OF H5 S/W WHICH WAS PROVIDING LIFT TO SHRAS/TSRAS OVR ERN ZONES
THIS AFTN PROGGED TO BE OVR CNTRL FA BY 00Z TNGT AND NE OF THE FA BY
06Z. ASSOCD RH WL BE OVR NE PTN OF FA BY 00Z THEN ATMOS DRIES OUT A
BIT OVERNGT. WL CONT LIKELY POPS FOR THE EVE OVR ERN FA. OTHERWISE
SKIES SHUD BE PC.

HVIEST PCPN HAS NOT BEEN OVR THE MD ZONES W/LOWEST FFG SO NO NEED
FOR FFA YET. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

DWPTS IN U50S AND L60S WL KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING MUCH TNGT. THUS
PREFER MAV TEMPS OVR LOWER FWC TEMPS.

ON SUN...A FAIRLY STG VORT LOBE PROGGED TO PIVOT ARND GRT LAKES/OH
VLLY UPR LOW INTO THE WRN ZONES. AREA OF HI RH AND DECENT UVV
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES THRU THE NW PART OF
THE FA. H85 WNDS WL INCR TO 25-30 KT. MDLS ALSO HV A SFC TROF MOVG E
THRU FA DUR THE AFTN. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT THE FWC/MAV CHC POPS.
PCPN WL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTN. HIEST PROB WL BE IN NW.

WL GO W/COMPROMISE BETW FWC/MAV FOR TEMPS SUN.

SFC BDRY WL BE APPCHG ERN ZONES SUN EVE SO WL CONT CHC POPS THERE.
WL OTHERWISE HV PC FOR SUN NIGHT.

UPR LOW PROGGED TO SHIFT NE AND OPEN UP ON MON. H85 FLOW WL BE
WESTERLY AND AMS WL CONT TO DRY OUT. WL HV P/S OR M/S.

GUID TEMPS SUN NIGHT AND MON LUK RSNBL.

IN THE EXTENDED PD...OLD MRF AND 12Z AVN BOTH HAD STG VORT PIVOTING
THRU THE RGN ON WED BUT RH WAS LIMITED. WL GO MSTLY CLDY INSTEAD OF
PC TO ACCT FOR THIS...OTRW XTENDED PD LUKS QUIET AND REFLECTS CURR
FCST.

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

ARTHUR

MDZ002-003-VAZ027-028-WVZ048>052-055-270130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
609 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2001

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY... AND ARE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
RAIN IN THE SPAN OF ONE HOUR.

THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET... AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME PONDING
OF WAkTER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY... AND PERSONS LIVING NEAR SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD WATCH FOR RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MARGRAF!