Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1035 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

AT 14Z...SUN HAS BROKEN THRU W OF BLUE RIDGE AND OVER SE CWA. STILL
SOME CLDS OVER CENT AND NE BUT AS S WINDS INCREASE EXPECT SOME SUN
TO BREAK THRU THERE. 12Z IAD SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR THIS AFT SHOWS
CONCERN FOR SVR WX. DIR SHEAR...MID LVL WINDS 50+ MPH IN COMBINATION
WITH LI'S -8 AND CAPE 3000 J/KG GIVE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
FREEZING LEVEL 2000 FT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY /AROUND 11200 FT/ WHICH
LESSENS THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. CWA IS INCLUDED IN SPC SLIGHT RISK.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIP WATER 1.75 IN.  AREAS
FROM BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD AND AROUND CHO HAD HVY RAINFALL PAST FEW
DAYS AND FFG HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY.  LAST NIGHT ISOLATED
RAINFALL BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OCCURRED IN ORANGE... NELSON...
SHENANDOAH AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. WITH THIS THREAT IN PLACE AGAIN
WILL BE ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE THRU 4 AM SAT. THREAT OF
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL REST OF CWA BUT FFG IS SIG HIGHER THERE.

WILL ADD WORDING TO ALL ZONES THIS AFT AND TONIGHT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SVR STORMS.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT BY 11AM...SVR WX
OUTLOOK OUT BY 1115 AM.

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFT AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES MDZ002>003.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFT AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES
VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>040...VAZ050>051.

WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCHO THIS AFT AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.

MMARGRAF

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-222100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
1125 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...MUCH OF MARYLAND WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.

WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND CAN
CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.

REMEMBER...ALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR
WITHOUT WARNING WELL IN ADVANCE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MMARGRAF