Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

SATELLITE INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR WICHITA
FALLS AT 20Z HAS INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS
IS ALSO WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH OF AMARILLO TO RATON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH MAY AID
IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PLAINVIEW/LUBBOCK/CHILDRESS AREA
THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED BETWEEN RATON AND
ALAMOSA. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM
RATON SOUTH TO CLINES CORNER. TUCUMCARI WIND PROFILE IS VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH EASTERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUSTAINING THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH BEST CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND CONVECTION WHICH FIRES ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO SHOULD NOT ADVECT TOO FAR TO THE EAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

WEAK FLOW REGIME REMAINS THE THEME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COULD
SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT CHANCE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST.

FRIONA         55/76/56/85  4111
TULIA          54/75/56/85  3100
BROWNFIELD     57/78/57/89  4111
LUBBOCK        58/78/59/88  3100
CHILDRESS      58/77/62/86  3000
ASPERMONT      62/79/64/86  3100

.LUB...NONE.

TINSLEY

TXZ021>044-111900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTfED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO DIME
SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.