Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
610 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2001

UPDATED 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXCIO AND APPROACHING WEST TEXAS. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED SKY
COVER. SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

XI

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND A TROF ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WHILE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AMPLIFIES. THIS
PRODUCES A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE...AT 18Z A TROF EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
FROM A WEAK LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE TROF
OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING THEN BEGIN WASHING OUT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ATTM. 850-700MB
THETA-E AXIS WAS ALSO LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WITH VORT MAX...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...MOVING INTO THIS AREA EXPECT CONVECTION
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL THUS INSERT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE EAST. THETA-E RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT. WITH FRONT IN THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON THE EXTENDED: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. THUS MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THANKS AMA FOR COORDINATION.

PRELIMINARY:
FRIONA/TULIA        58/87/57/84 3123
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK  60/89/60/90 3122
CHILDRESS           63/89/63/87 1-13
ASPERMONT           63/87/64/87 2-11

.LUB...NONE.

JV/08