Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CDT MON APR 16 2001

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN WI WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BUILD SOUTH INTO TX AND OK ON TUE.
AT 18Z THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER KS
WERE IN THE 40S.  SOUTH OF THE FRONT EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ADVECTED DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH OF A SJT TO CVS LINE.  THE MESO ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WEAK CAP IN PLACE WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.  ATTM I WILL PROBABLY
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SCOUR THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL END BEFORE
6Z. THE ETA MODEL DOES SHOW WAA BETWEEN THE 800 AND 700MB LEVEL...
BUT AN EML ABOVE 700MB SHOULD CAP ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
FROPA TO OVER 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WIND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPLIFT WEST OF THE CAP ROCK
ESCARPMENT FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO FORM AS LONG AS THE SURFACE T/TD
DEPRESSION ARE LOW ENOUGH. THE DRIZZLE WILL END BY NOON TOMORROW AS
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST IS ADVECTED SOUTHWEST ONTO THE CAP
ROCK.  INTENSE LOW-LEVEL CAA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK...ANY SOLAR INSOLATION WILL
CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO BE A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES WARMER.

THE ETA MODEL SHOWS AN H5 RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER WEST TX ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SFC LEE TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  ALL THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW AN H5 TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DOWN STREAM H5 RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE WESTERN CONUS TROF WILL APPROACH WEST TX THIS
WEEKEND PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA. AS THE H5 TROF
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TX SUNDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY.

FRIONA     36/48/36/78  2100
TULIA      38/51/37/77  2100
CHILDRESS  43/53/42/70  1-00
BROWNFIELD 42/50/42/77  2100
LUBBOCK    41/52/42/75  2100
ASPERMONT  45/55/44/72  1-00

.LUB...NONE.
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