Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK, TX
305 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2001

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WEST
TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND PROFILER DATA. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND OROGRAPHICS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
LIFT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CHIHUAHUA. LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF
ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET WAS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FIELD OVER THE TRANS PECOS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS AREA ATTM. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH
AIRMASS REMAINING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS RESIDE.

KAMA RADAR SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM PERRYTON TO DALHART AND
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH. EXPECT THE FRONT TO HANG UP OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
IMPEDES SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...FOR AWHILE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT BUT STORMS MAY BACKBUILD DOWN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR THE KCDS AREA SO WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS THERE ALSO FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ETA MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE ON A
SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED PACE...MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA AROUND 10Z AND NEAR KLBB AROUND 12Z. THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY 15Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT
WIND FORECAST WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUAL DECREASE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE STATIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL GO
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND RECORD LOW OF 35 DEGREES FOR LUBBOCK SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FOR SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF WAS STATING ALL ALONG. THE 12Z AVN
SHOWS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LINGERING ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF POPS ON TUESDAY THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIONA      50  55  33  69 /  20  20   0   0
TULIA       52  56  33  68 /  20  20   0   0
CHILDRESS   55  57  38  66 /  30  30   0   0
BROWNFIELD  57  62  36  67 /  30  20   0   0
LUBBOCK     56  62  35  66 /  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT   59  66  39  66 /  40  40   0   0

.LUB...NONE.

TINSLEY