Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2001

AN MCS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH CAPES AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NOTED FROM THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NM. SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO SW NM.
THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK WAVE INTO COLORADO WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION AND FURTHER STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES LATE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE IN CWA
BUT INITIAL GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
NORTHWEST...PERHAPS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE EAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATER
THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY FORCING INCREASES BENEATH INCREASING
VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ALOFT. MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS WEAK TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...BUT STRONG MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY..AGAIN MORE NUMEROUS EAST.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST INITIALLY...AND THEN BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS MESOSCALE COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND PERHAPS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
TONIGHT. SYSTEM WILL FEED ON 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET.
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS AS IT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE BIG
COUNTRY TOWARD MORNING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT BRIDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. AIRMASS SAT OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL DRY CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTERED
OVER NW OK. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES INTO EASTERN NM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND STILL FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

STRONG STORM COMING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN SHARPLY AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS SUNDAY. TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL COOLER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN TOWARD MID
WEEK...WITH MAIN WESTERLIES HAVING RETREATED NORTHWARD ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER. STILL LOOKS COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH EXTENDED. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW.

FRIONA     59/82/58/83   4433   TULIA       60/83/59/84   5333
CHILDRESS  65/85/63/87   7432   BROWNFIELD  63/85/61/87   4433
LUBBOCK    62/84/60/86   5433   ASPERMONT   68/87/65/88   6533

.LUB...NONE.

JAMES

TXZ024>026-030>032-035>038-210200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING...

IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
BRISCOE...CHILDRESS AND HALL...

IN NORTHWEST TEXAS...
COTTLE...CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...KING...LUBBOCK AND MOTLEY...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TXZ041>044-202300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING...

IN NORTHWEST TEXAS...
GARZA...KENT...LYNN AND STONEWALL...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.