Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN BORGER AND GUYMON WITH A TROUGH
AXIS/DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM EAST OF AMARILLO TO NEAR MULESHOE.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS
ANALYSIS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF CONVECTION MAY
AGAIN BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE SAME AREA AS LAST NIGHT.
BUT THE CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN SOUTH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ATTM. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.
MODELS SHOW REGION WILL BE IN FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ETA MODEL SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WITH RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE ETA QPF FORECAST...AVN APPEARS TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THIS
PROBLEM LINGERS INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THE AVN. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE STEERING FLOW FOR
CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FLOW
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK.

FRI   64  89  61  85 /  30  40  30  30
TUL   66  91  63  87 /  40  40  30  20
CDS   71  93  67  89 /  40  40  30  10
BNF   68  93  65  89 /  30  30  50  30
LBB   70  93  65  88 /  30  30  50  20
ASP   73  95  68  89 /  20  30  40  10

.LUB...NONE.

TINSLEY

@RUKWBCeKDENFXUS64 KLUB 242021 CCA
AFDLBB
SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN BORGER AND GUYMON WITH A TROUGH
AXIS/DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM EAST OF AMARILLO TO NEAR MULESHOE.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS
ANALYSIS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF CONVECTION MAY
AGAIN BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE SAME AREA AS LAST NIGHT.
BUT THE CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN SOUTH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ATTM. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.
MODELS SHOW REGION WILL BE IN FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ETA MODEL SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WITH RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE ETA QPF FORECAST...AVN APPEARS TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THIS
PROBLEM LINGERS INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THE AVN. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE STEERING FLOW FOR
CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FLOW
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK.

FRI   64  89  61  85 /  30  40  30  30
TUL   66  91  63  87 /  40  40  30  20
CDS   71  93  67  89 /  40  40  30  10
BNF   68  93  65  89 /  30  30  50  30
LBB   70  93  65  88 /  30  30  50  20
ASP   73  95  68  89 /  20  30  40  10

.LUB...NONE.

TINSLEY

TXZ021>044-241930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM LUBBOCK TO AMARILLO AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.

HIGH MOISTURE VALUES...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LUB.