Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

SHORT WAVE IN UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON IS HELPING ENHANCE THE LIFT COMING OUT OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  STEERING WINDS SHOULD
MOVE THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE FORECAST
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ETA...MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERESTIMATED THE
INSTABILITY.  THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL.

THE SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM OF THE FORECAST.  BY SATURDAY THE LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ALLOW A FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR FORECAST AREA.  AVN MODEL IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY.   WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE A COUPLE MORE MODELS RUNS BEFORE GETTING TOO EXCITED ABOUT
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY...BUT WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST SOME POPS.

BEYOND SATURDAY AND GOING ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING EAST...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO
OUR WEST...PUTTING US IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THUS WILL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OF THE NIGHTIME OR MORNING
VARIETY.

PRELIMINARY:
FRI   64  92  63  90 /  40  10  20  20
TUL   64  92  63  90 /  40  10  20  20
CDS   71  97  71  95 /  40  10  20  20
BNF   69  95  69  93 /  40  10  20  20
LBB   69  95  69  93 /  40  10  20  20
ASP   71  97  71  95 /  40  10  20  20

.LUB...NONE.