Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

...CORRECTED TEMPERATURES IN PRELIM NUMBERS BELOW...

SFC OBS INDICATING MOISTURE AXIS FROM AMA-CDS-ABI WITH LAPS
INDICATING CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG IN THIS AREA. SOME CU
GOING UP IN THE AXIS...ESPECIALLY W/SW OF AMA WHERE LAPS INDICATES
WEAKER CAP. MEANWHILE DRYLINE IS STILL VERY FAR TO THE WEST NEAR A
ROW-LVS LINE WITH LINE OF CU/TSRA GOING UP ON IT. GIVEN THIS SET UP
WOULD LOOK FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO WRN ZONES SIMILAR TO
LATEST RUC RUN THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AFTER SUNSET AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING LLJ. CHC POPS FOR NOW
PENDING RADAR/SATELLITE/SFC OB EVALUATION CLOSER TO ZONE ISSUANCE.

WOULD LIKELY HAVE A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY OR TWO IN THE AREA TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING 14-16C RANGE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICTING
INCREASING CAP. THUS THINK CONVECTION WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTN/EVE. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NERN ZONES WHERE CAP WILL BE
WEAKER AND WHERE AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO SOUTHWARD MOVING SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ETA/AVN BOTH BRING THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE FA
MEMORIAL DAY. HOWEVER CAP IS THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR. WILL PROBABLY
TAKE A WHILE TO BREAK CAP...IF AT ALL...AND WILL LIMIT POP WORDING TO
FIFTH PERIOD ATTM.

BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WEAKENING CAP. WILL
THUS KEEP SLIGHT CHC WORDING GOING.

FRIONA       60/92/60/87 3111
TULIA        60/92/60/87 3111
BROWNFIELD   62/93/65/93 3111
LUBBOCK      62/93/65/93 3111
CHILDRESS    64/90/65/85 4221
ASPERMONT    67/93/67/93 4111

.LUB...NONE.

BARRITT

TXZ021>044-261900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY ALSO ASSIST IN THE INITIATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER
GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.