Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001

STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...WITH
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS REGION AND DRYLINE BACKED UP INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREAS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. FRONT MAY MOVE
FARTHER NORTH WITH STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID AND UPPER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AMOUNTS OVER 1.0
INCH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND IN SUNNY AREAS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF KLBB. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED...BUT SUNSHINE MAY
BE A PREMIUM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...LIMITING INSTABILITY. STILL
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE...PERHAPS
HIGHER TO THE WEST WITH MORE SUN. WITH BOUNDARIES IN AREA...A FEW
TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND INCREASES AFTER 00Z AS IS PROGGED.

STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LARGE RAIN COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINATED BUT SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG 850 MB JET FEEDING STORMS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY OVER SE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FELL YESTERDAY. TROPICAL CONNECTION
NOTED FROM BAJA FROM UPPER LOW OFF THE MEXICAN COAST MAY ALSO
ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGH POPS WITH DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE...AND FORCING FROM LOW. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NM MAY
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE STARTING TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA. LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE EVENT WITH SEVERE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW LIFT NE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND DRY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ENDING THE RAIN THREAT... TEMPORARILY.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER LATE IN WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND BREEZY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH AMPLIFYING FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE AND DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. NW
FLOW CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. MRF INDICATING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT
SW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER S/SW TEXAS. WARMER LATE IN WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN 80S. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW.

FRIONA     50/74/49/79  5541
TULIA      50/75/50/81  6651
CHILDRESS  61/76/57/80  8765
BROWNFIELD 53/80/55/82  5544
LUBBOCK    55/78/55/80  7654
ASPERMONT  63/78/60/80  8765

.LUB...NONE.

JAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK, TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0306 PM    10 W TULIA                TX   1 INCH HAIL
05/03/01   SWISHER                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT AND
                                          SPOTTERS.

0310 PM    1 W TULIA                 TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/01   SWISHER                        REPORTED BY SPOTTERS.

ST