Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 PM CDT MON APR 9 2001

ACTIVE PD BEGINS TNGT.  WHILE ALL THE MDLS DIFFERING ON SOME OF THE
DETAILS...THEY ARE ALL CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLN WITH WDSPRD
TSTRMS TNGT.  EXACT MODE OF CONVECTIVE INITITATION IS THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY ATTM.  PRESENT THOUGHTS ARE INITIAL DVLPMNT WL OCCUR NR
SFC LOW AND ALG WRM FNT FM SE IA INTO NRN IL.  OTHER AREA ATTM
APPEARS TO BE IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT FM WEST OF SZL TWDS IRK WHERE
CU FIELD IS EXPANDING AND STLT SHWG SOME VERTICAL GROWTH.  BLV
THINGS WL REALLY BLOW-UP IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME WHEN MOIST PLUME
ADVECTING NEWD FROM THE SOPLNS MOVS INTO THE AREA...LLJ BACKS A LTL
MORE AND INTENSIFIES AND LRG SCALE UVV INCRSS IN ASSOCN WITH PLAINS
SHRTWV.  PWS FCST TO INCRS TO NRLY 1.5 IN LATER TNGT WITH K INDICES
IN THE LM30S IN ASSOCN WITH MID LVL MOIST PLUME...SIGNALLING GOOD
PCPN EFFICIENCY WITH CNVCTV CELLS.  THE ETA FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE RUNS
HAS BEEN GENERATING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MESOSCALE BNDRY MOVG INTO
SRN SXNS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT WITH THE LLJ IMPINGING AND PROVIDING
STG LIFT ALG ITS WRN FLANK.  AGAIN WHILE THE EXACT LCTN MAY NOT BE
CORRECT...IT IS GIVING A STG SIGNAL FOR A REGENERATIVE EVENT WITH
WEST-EAST TRAINING AND HVY RAFL POTNTL.  IF I HAD TO VENTURE A GUESS
RGT NOW THE PRIME FOCUS WUD SEEM TO LIE BTWN COU-STL AFT MID.
CONSIDERING ABV AND WITH FFG VALUES MOST LCTNS AOB 2 IN/3H WL ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TNGT FOR ALL BUT SRN SXNS. WL KP THE WATCH GOING
THRU TMW MRNG IN THE I-70 COORIDOOR AS THINGS MAY STILL BE GOING
GOOD THRU 15Z OR SO.  BY LATE MRNG THINK THERE WL BE SOME DOWNTIME
BFR LLJ BACKS ARND TO MORE SLY AND THE FOCUS SHIFTS UP ALG AND NORTH
OF THE FNT AND ANY LINGERING RESIDUAL BNDRYS.  THIS WUD BE LATE TUE
AFT INTO TUE NGT.  WL PROBABLY BE SOME HVY RN POTNTL TMW NGT AS
WELL.  AVN ONCE AGAIN RMNS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FNT AND HV TENDED
TO COMPROMISE BTWN IT AND THE MORE NRN ETA/NGM WITH BNDRY WAVERING A
BIT NORTH OF I-70.  FINAL ROUNDS OF STRMS ON WED WITH EJECTING UPR
LOW/TROF AND ASSOCD PAC CDFNT/DRLYN.

.STL...FFA TNGT NE MO/WC IL
       FFA TNGT AND TUE MRNG FOR CNTRL/EAST CNTRL MO AND SW IL
GLASS