Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
240 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH THRU CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO EASTERN KS AND HASN/T MADE MUCH PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WARMED TO 90+ ALL AREAS TODAY. CONVECTION OVER EASTERN IA
PUSHING NORTH AND SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. MORE CONVECTION FIRING BACK
THRU MO AND KS.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER MN AND S/W EJECTS FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY...FRONT SHOULD START PICK UP ITS PACE SOME. BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON SPEED AND HAVE SLOWED MORE SINCE 00Z RUNS. AVN FASTEST
WITH ETA SLOWER...AND ETA MAY STILL BE TOO FAST. WILL TREND TOWARD
THE ETA...BUT SLOWER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES
TONIGHT WESTERN IL AND WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL NORTHWEST FA
TONIGHT. FOR REST OF IL COUNTIES...WILL GO LIKELY TONIGHT AND LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR INDIANA COUNTIES. FOR FRI...CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST
TO LIKELY NORTHEAST AND INDIANA COUNTIES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...STORMS ENTERING FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING WILL HAVE PLENTY TO WORK WITH AS DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND
MESOETA SHOWING CAPES WELL ABOVE 2000. BUT BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST
OF FA. SVR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED WITH MAIN THREAT WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN NORTHWEST GROUP AS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST...THREAT OF SVR DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST PER SPC DY1.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM NIGHT IN STORE AND WILL STAY CLOSE TONIGHT.
WITH CLOUD COVER OVER IA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S. SUBSIDENCE SHOWN
ON TIME HEIGHTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH SLOWING TREND...CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND AND WILL GO COOLER THAN FWC AND TREND TOWARD MAV.
GUIDANCE CLOSE AND FOLLOWED LATER PERIODS.

EXTENDED...COULD BE ACTIVE EARLY WEEK IF AVN VERIFIES SHOWING MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER PLAINS AND MIDWEST. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THANKS FOR CORD...MKX...ILX...DVN.

.CHI...NONE.

CMS