Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2001

HAVE ALREADY ACCIDENTALLY SENT THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE EARLY...SO
THIS DISCUSSION IS AN AFTERTHOUGHT.

WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WE HAVE
JUICED UP NICELY...WITH DEWPOINTS AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS MOST AREAS. TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHERE CONVECTION WAS GOING TO
DEVELOP ON OLD BOUNDARIES...AND WHERE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED NICELY ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
LOUISVILLE AND BOWLING GREEN. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AHEAD OF A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
HAS MOVED OFF FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST. BOTH
THE ETA AND AVN LATCHED ONTO THIS FEATURE...AND MOVE IT EASTWARD
TOWARD EASTERN TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. WAS THINKING THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MODEL
QPF DID NOT REALLY PICK UP ON THIS...WHICH WE FEEL IS OFF.

MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY MORNING...
WITH THE GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...SO FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LIKELY DOWN STATE LATER TONIGHT.  THE AVN TRIES TO PUSH THE FRONT
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE ETA/NGM...AND WE FEEL THAT IS
PROBABLY A BIT TOO FAST.  THUS...WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN A MORNING
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...AND UNQUALIFIED ALL
DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

.SDF...NONE.
VLD

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-062230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MISSOURI EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WARM AND VERY
MOIST...AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...
AND INDIANA...THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

IN ADDITION...OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ALSO WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS...AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODuAY.

FUNK