Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION... CORRECTION..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF COLD
FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

AT 18Z THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TO
JUST EAST OF ST LOUIS. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LOUISVILLE AND BOWLING GREEN AROUND 00Z AND LEXINGTON AROUND
02Z.

A SOLID LINE OF STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. 18Z 0-3KM SR HELICITY VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WERE AROUND 300 SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS GOOD
FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CFA. LLJ OF
50 KTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT. WE WILL
KEEP A HIGH POP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY AS DRY COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION ON A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S BY MORNING. COLD AIR CU WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE TROF ON FRIDAY AND BRING
THE COLDEST AIR INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CFA SO WE WILL
KEEP THE CFA DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.SDF...TORNADO WATCH 797 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH 7 PM
EST.

JA

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-250400-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

A POWERFUL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND THAT PART OF
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...THROUGH MID EVENING.

IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED WITH 60 TO 80 MPH
THUNDERSTORM WINDS COMMON...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A PLAN TO SURVIVE A TORNADO...WHETHER YOU ARE
IN YOUR HOME...AT WORK OR SCHOOL...IN A MOTOR VEHICLE...OR AT A
STORE OR MALL.  AT HOME...WORK OR SCHOOL...MOVE TO A PRE-DESIGNATED
SHELTER...SUCH AS THE INTERIOR PART OF A BASEMENT. YOUR SHELTER
SHOULD INCLUDE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO WITH A WARNING ALARM TONE AND
BATTERY BACK-UP. IF A SPECIFIC SHELTER DOES NOT EXIST...GO TO AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR SMALL ROOM ON THE BUILDINGS LOWEST LEVEL.

PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES AND AUTOMOBILES ARE QUITE VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS AND EVEN MOBILE HOMES THAT ARE TIED DOWN CANNOT WITHSTAND THE
FORCE OF TORNADIC WINDS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY...
...MAKE ARRANGEMENTS TO STAY WITH FRIENDS OR FAMILY WHO HAVE
BASEMENTS. PUT YOUR PLAN IN ACTION WHEN A TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED.

LEAVE YOUR MOTOR VEHICLE FOR SAFE SHELTER IF POSSIBLE. DO NOT SEARCH
OUT A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. IT IS A COLLECTION AREA FOR TORNADIC DEBRIS
AS WELL AS A WIND TUNNEL. TORNADO WINDS SQUEEZING UNDER THE OVERPASS
SPEED UP BY AS MUCH AS 25 PERCENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION...RADIO
STATIONS...OR THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION.

STUREY