Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
345 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

...SERIOUS FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...

HYBRID TROPICAL/STRONG BAROCLINIC PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MAXIMUM RAINFALL INTENSITIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS OF
ECHO TRAINING. FORTUNATELY...SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
TORRENTIAL RAIN SHIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE THIBODAUX/SCHRIEVER AREA
OF UPPER LAFOURCHE/TERREBONNE PARISHES WHERE RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES SHOWED A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF 6 INCH WITH LOCAL 8.5
INCH AMOUNTS IN JUST 3 HOURS...ENDING AROUND 0700Z. STORM TOTALS IN
THIS AREA ARE OVER 15 INCHES WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MAX AREA FOR
THIS EVENT. NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY...SERIOUS FLOODING HAS RESULTED IN
THIS AREA WITH NUMEROUS HOMES FLOODED AND THE MAJORITY OF ROADS AND
STREETS CLOSED DUE TO VERY HIGH WATER.

THE ETA/AVN MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH REGARDS TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON WITH SOME PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE
AVN. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTING A BIT
NW...THE MODELS MAY ACTUALLY BE RESOLVING THE WELL DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SPLITTING NE/SW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A
WELL DEFINED DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES AND OUTFLOWS MOVING NORTH.
ONLY A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING SE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD CAUSE CONVECTION TO FIRE SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY ENCOMPASSING
MOST OF SE LA AND S MS WITH THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE AREA BEING THE
EASTERN TWO MS COASTAL COUNTIES. WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX OVER TEXAS
SHIFTING BACK W/SW...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS MAY REMAIN JUST WEST OF
GULFPORT. BECAUSE AREAS FROM GULFPORT EAST HAVE NOT RECEIVED
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN...WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING THEM IN THE FLOOD
WATCH. OTHERWISE...IT IS PRUDENT TO KEEP ALL AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE
FLOOD WATCH AS IS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL QPF TECHNIQUES FORECAST 6
TO 8 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TO SUM UP LATER PERIODS...THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF. AS THE
UPPER VORT MAX OVER S TX FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SHEARS OUT...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL BASICALLY TAPER RAIN CHANCES ABOUT 20
PERCENT EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

KMCB 76/69/82/69 +876   KBTR 76/70/83/70 +876
KMSY 79/72/83/73 +876   KGPT 80/72/82/72 8876

.NEW...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077-080.

22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-071600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
645 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALLISON ARE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTH OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN BANDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTH GULF WATERS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MILES PER HOUR...HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MILES PER
HOUR.

.HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW OF THE
HEAVY RAIN BANDS WILL BECOME STATIONARY...CAUSING RAINFALL RATES OF
2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EAST OF GULFPORT. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ON
SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING.

.ACTIONS...REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD RELATED WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS
SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
736 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0624 AM    3 NW ZACHARY              LA   TORNADO
06/07/01   EAST BATON ROUGE               *** 1 DEAD ***
                                          ACCORDING TO ZACHARY
                                          FD...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON
                                          HOMES. TWO CONFIRMED
                                          TOUCHDOWNS IN THE VICINITY
                                          OF THE PLANK ROAD AND PORT
                                          HUDSON ROAD AREA. FATALITY
                                          OCCURRED WHEN A TREE FELL
                                          ONTO A PICKUP
                                          TRUCK...OCCUPANT MALE.
                                          INITIALLY REPORTED BY BATON
                                          ROUGE EOP.