Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

THE WET PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF MODELS LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD BET BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. A VORT MAX NEAR THE
UPPER TX COAST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT
SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH WED. FROM 850 MB UP TO 500 MB...THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE W GULF INTO E TX/NW LA WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. ABOVE 500 MB...SW WINDS WILL BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED.

GOES-SOUNDER DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VALUES JUST UNDER 2
INCHES JUST OFF THE SE LA COAST. THE AVN BEST DEPICTS THIS MOISTURE.
DEEP TROPICAL FLOW SHOULD BRING 2 INCH OR HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TODAY...SO
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WETTER AVN SOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AND
TUE. THE PEAK LIFT AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST POPS/QPF ACTUALLY COME TUE
NIGHT INTO WED IF THE AVN/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THE ONLY NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR HIGH POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER/LOWER TEMPS AND RESULTANT LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH WED.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A DEEP E PACIFIC TROUGH/
ROCKIES RIDGE/E COAST TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING A RARE JUNE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THU/THU NIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY FRI. WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH WITH NW FLOW AND PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...THU COULD BE
A RATHER ACTIVE DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. NEW MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT ON FRIDAY...SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN T<HE ZONES AND KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MCB 86/72/82/70 6576  BTR 86/73/82/71 6576
MSY 86/74/82/73 6576  GPT 85/74/81/73 6576

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

SYNOPSIS...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE WARM...MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF.

THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 MILES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.

ACTIONS...ACTIVATION OF THE STORM SPOTTER NETWORK IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS
SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).