Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
130 AM CST MON JAN 29 2001

MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THIS AM WITH TRACK OF H5 LOW NORTHEAST TO
MISSOURI BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. SURFACE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE OUT RAPIDLY TODAY AS LOW OVER TX MOVES TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY 29/18Z WITH ATTENDENT COLDFRONT PUSHING EAST TO LINE
FROM NORTHEAST MS TO KLFT AREA. SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS EAST
OF CWA BY 30/03Z TONIGHT. AVN SHOWS 130 KT JET AT 250MB MOVING NE
WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD APPROACHING CWA AROUND 00Z. ETA MODEL DIFFERS
BY KEEPING JET CORE WELL WEST OF AREA. CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP
APPEARS TO BE IN BETWIX THE TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FEW
POSSIBLE SEVERE IN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD WAA AND 30 TO 40KT
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF FRONT...MODERATE HELICITIES WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES  IS SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL ABATE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT SO WILL RAISE TEMPERATRES ABOVE MOS GUID VALUES FOR MINS
TONIGHT.
IN MARINE SECTION...MODERATE WAA AHEAD OF SYSTEM JUSTIFIES
MAINTAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS MARINE ZONES INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGES.

MCB 70/45/70/48 +100     BTR 71/48/71/47 +000
MSY 75/56/72/52 +200     GPT 71/51/66/52 +601

.NEW...SCA PQL-ATCHAFALAYA RVE INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN/MAUREPAS
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-292000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1015 AM CST MON JAN 29 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 10 IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL
   AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 2 PM
   CST...

A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS THIS LINE MOVES EAST AT 35 TO
40 MPH. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONDITIONS BY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES
AND POWERLINES.

DUE TO DROUGHT DAMAGED TREES ACROSS THE AREA...WEAKENED OR DEAD
TREES MAY BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED BY WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 60 MPH.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL
COUNTIES 3SHORTLY AFTER 3 PM.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).

24