Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
235 AM CST THU MAR 8 2001

LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WITH SQUALL EXTENDING ALONG
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER WEST OF NAPOLEONVILLE SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LA AND IN ADVANCE OF
MID/UPPER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. SINCE INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN NATURE...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE ONLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS THE SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES TO THE E.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY OR
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL MS AND THE MS RIVER DELTA
AREA...MAINLY PLAQUEMINES PARISH. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN THE
COASTAL WATERS MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY E OF THE MS RIVER. AS
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE THE E OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS SW FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPPING S ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. STATES WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SW CONUS ON SAT PRIOR TO BEING EJECTED NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA AND WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES
E INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TX BY MID WEEK WITH SW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT...WET PERIOD IN
STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES E OF THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS AND TIMING TO END PRECIPITATION IN CERTAIN
AREAS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS JUST PRIOR TO ZONE FORECAST ISSUANCE
TIME.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW...

MCB 61/38/67/48 3000   BTR 61/42/68/51 3000
MSY 65/48/68/55 7000   GPT 65/44/67/54 8000

.NEW...SCA PQL TO ATCHAFALAYA RVR INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
       MAUREPAS
LA.k..NONE.
MS...NONE.