Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
320 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2001

A CLASSIC MADDOX SYNOPTIC TYPE HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  AN INITIAL AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER
SE LA INTO S MS WITH RAINFALL AMFOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. SOME FLOODING ALREADY REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF PEARL RIVER
COUNTY MS AND ST TAMMANY PARISH IN LA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH KLCH RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ABOUT 75 TO 120 NM S AND SE OF LCH MOVING NE TOWARDS SCNTRL AND SE
LA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH IR SATELLITE INDICATED THE UPPER LOW
JUST S OF THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF SW TEX CONTINUED TO MOVE ESE ABOUT
20 KT. MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE E AND NE OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. AVN/ETA MODELS APPEAR TO
BE HANDLING THE OVERALL PATTERN THE BEST. PW'S WILL CONTINUE NEAR
1.75 INCHES...K-INDICES ABOVE 34 AND THETA E VALUES ABOVE 330.
DIVERGENCE IS INDICATED ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM NEAR KPIB-PTN SAGGING SLOWLY SE
AS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NW GULF MOVES NEWD OVER SE LA BY LATE
TODAY.  LOCAL QPF SCHEMES SUGGEST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
EXCEED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW HOURS TIME.  AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EWD
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FOR TONIGHT AND SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM KMCB TO THE MS
COAST.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF A FEW LOCALLY SVR STORMS OVER
EXTREME SE LA AND S MS TODAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL SLY JET INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BECOME UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF A STRONG 250 MB JET MAX BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TODAY.

AS FOR MARINE...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR COASTAL WATERS W
OF MS RIVER. ENTIRE AREA SHOULD HAVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

MCB...63/49/63/39 9310    BTR 64/52/64/42 9110
MSY...70/54/67/46 +110    GPT 73/53/66/41 +411

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT MS RIVER TO K7R4.
LA...FFA ALL PARISHES IN SE LOUISIANA.
MS.Y..FFA MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

05

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-031300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1030 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2001

.SYNOPSIS...UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY
TONIGHT AS A A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND MONVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO NOON.

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST AND EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
SATURDAY...

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
THREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

...ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERjS
SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).