Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Lake Charles, LA

SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
230 PM CST THU MAR 1 2001

RADAR SHOWING SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. VIS
SAT LOOP SHOWS NOTHING BUT OVC OVER ENTIRE AREA...ADDED TEXTURE
TO THE OVC INDICATING THE HIGHER TOPS OF TSRA NOTED OVER C TX
THRU N LA. OUR OLD COLD FRONT STILL DANGLING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...OFFSHORE SE TX PARALLELING THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES TO BETWEEN NEW IBERIA AND PATTERSON LA.

LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SW US BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST MAJOR IMPULSE (VORT/OMEGA/MOISTURE =
TSRA) ALREADY OVER C TX THRU N LA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TONIGHT THRU SAT MORNING...WITH A STEADY STREAM OF SUCCESSIVE
IMPULSES EJECTING NE AS THE ENTIRE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST. MODELS
AGREE IN THIS FEATURE RELATIVELY WELL...PLACING THE H5 TROF AXIS
OVER C TX BY 12Z SAT....AND CONTINUING IT EAST WITH THE AVN BEING
ROBUST ABOUT SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SAT NIGHT TO EARLY
SUN.

WHAT SEEM TO BE THE PROBLEM IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GULF. ALL OF THEM SHOW THE WEAK REFLECTION OUT THERE NOW S
OF LCH AND E OF CRP. THE ETA SOLUTIONS DEVELOP IT FRI EVENING AND
MOVE IT ASHORE SE LA BY EARLY SAT MORNING...CONTINUING IT NE
THEREAFTER. THE AVN DEVELOPS IT DURING FRIDAY...HANGS IT BACK OFF THE
LA COAST AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS SW...AND DUMBBELLS/MERGES BOTH LOWS
AND EXPLOSIVELY DEVELOPS AT IT MOVE NE SOME 12 HOURS LATER SAT
EVENING ...WHICH SEEMS A BIT ODD TO ME. THIS REALLY PLAYS HAVOC ON
TEMPS SAT LOOKING AT 10-15 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN LOW TEMPS. I FEEL
THE ETA MAY BE A BIT FAST...AND LEAN A BIT CLOSER TO THE NGM...WHICH
PLACES IT MOVING ASHORE LATE SAT MORNING. THIS IS SPLITTING HAIRS
WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. BECAUSE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA..SPC HAS PLACED AREA JUST SE OF LFT IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI...SO WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY IN ZONES.

NOW FOR TOTAL PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. AVN/NGM SOLUTION ARE GIVING
THE MOST PRECIP WITH A SOLID .25 TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH PER 6 OURS
OVER THE E TX/ N AND SE LA REGION. MOST OF THEM AGREE IN 2-3 INCHES
FROM TONIGHT THRU FRI EVENING...WHICH IS GETTING MARGINAL TO FLOOD
WATCH POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY INLAND SE TX AND C LA ZONES...AS THEIR
FFG VALUES ARE LOWER THAN S ZONES. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FLOOD
WATCH (FOR RAINFALL) N ZONES...WHICH WILL MATCH WELL WITH SHV CWA.
COORDINATED WITH HOU (WHICH WILL HOLD OFF BECAUSE OF VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THUS FAR) AND NEW (WHICH WILL HOLD OFF BECAUSE THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER THAN THE WINDOW OF ISSUANCE). HOWEVER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A WORLD OF HURT FOR AREA RIVERS IN
NE TX..N LA THRU TOLEDO BEND AND THE LOWER SABINE RIVER. THE RIVER
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NECHES AND SABINE RIVERS HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
EARLIER. SEE NEWESFLCH (RIVER FLOOD WATCH).

THE EXTENDED...NW FLOW BEHIND MAIN TROF WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO
DIVE S LATE SUN AND PROVIDE RIDGING AND COOLER TEMPS THRU LATE WED...
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THU.

8

.LCH...FLOOD WATCDH (FOR RAINFALL)LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
AEX 53/62/52/62/45 +++94
BPT 55/65/53/63/48 9++73
LCH 58/68/55/65/49 9++84
LFT 60/70/60/68/50 89+95

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
020200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
130 PM CST THU MAR 1 2001

...A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED FOR NEWTON COUNTY...
...RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SABINE RIVER SOUTH OF TOLEDO BEND DAM...
...RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NECHES RIVER SOUTH OF STEINHAGEN LAKE...

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 5
INCHES OF RAIN.

SUCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER
SABINE...THE LOWER NECHES...AND THE UPPER CALCASIEU RIVERS.

IN FACT...A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR NEWTON
COUNTY. EVACUATION OF PROPERTY HAS BEEN RECOMMENDED FOR LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR THE SABINE RIVER INCLUDING RIVER ROADS AND SABINE SANDS.
PERSONS LIVING IN THE DEWEYVILLE AREA SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AND PREPARE FOR EVACUATION. NEWTON COUNTYS EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PLAN HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE SABINE...NECHES AND CALCASIEU RIVERS SHOULD BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS FLOOD EVENT VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH/