Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
241 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL INITIALIZATION DECENT THIS MORNING WITH THE AVN THE DEEPEST
WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LOW ACROSS ID.  TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS AS WELL WITH THE AVN SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF LOW VS THE ETA AND NGM.  NGM AND AVN
PRECIP FIELDS LOOK TO LARGE IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREA FOR FRIDAY
GIVEN BEST DYNAMICS SHIFTING SOUTH OF CWA.  FOR THIS REASON WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA FOR THIS FORECAST.

TONIGHT...FRONT MOVES ACROSS FA AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES AREA.  RAPID
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMIC
LIFT INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR DROPPING TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR DEWPOINT.
BELIEVE FWC GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM AND WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW THESE
NUMBERS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE FRONT SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF FA
BY MID DAY TAKING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT AS WELL.  WITH
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP SOUTH OF CWA WILL MENTION MORNING
SHOWERS WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES
BEHIND FRONT NOT LOOKING EXTREMELY WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 65 TO
70 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF AREA.  STRONG UPPER JET
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA THEN DIGS TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.  JET DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA.  ENHANCED LIFT SHOULD
ALSO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS FA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN BY 06Z.  GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY AFTERNOON.  STRONG CAA SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH ON SATURDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S
EAST TO MIDDLE 50S WEST.  WITH MOST CLOUD COVER LEAVING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS REGION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.  VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE COULD DROP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST
TO LOWER 40S EAST.

SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH SHOULD BE THE RULE ON
SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.  TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S LOOK DECENT FOR HIGHS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT START TO
DIVERGE ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH HANDLING OF NEXT WAVE.  TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD LEAVE AREA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  RECYCLED COOL AIR ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR BOTH DAYS AS WELL
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.  ECMWF IS THEN MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS WEST COAST ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WHILE LATEST MRF
KEEPS SYSTEM AN OPEN WAVE.  ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS FAVOR THE MRF SOLUTION
OVER THE ECMWF AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MRF FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  ANTICIPATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURNING TO
AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS REGION.  BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP AREA DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THAN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LBF...NONE.

AWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
743 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0655 PM    11 SW OSHKOSH             NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/06/01   GARDEN                         REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

0715 PM    6 N  LEWELLEN             NE   WIND DAMAGE
09/06/01   GARDEN                         POWER POLES BLOWN OVER.
                                          REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVERS

0730 PM    10 NE OSHKOSH             NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/06/01   GARDEN                         REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVERS

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
857 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0820 PM    4 E  WHITMAN              NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/06/01   GRANT                          REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

0845 PM    MULLEN                    NE   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
09/06/01   HOOKER                         REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
939 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 PM    OGALLALA                  NE   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
09/06/01   KEITH                          REPORTED BY KOGA AWOS

0910 PM    6 NNE LAMAR               NE   .88 INCH HAIL
09/06/01   CHASE                          REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

0915 PM    MULLEN                    NE   70 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
09/06/01   HOOKER                         REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

0915 PM    MULLEN                    NE   .88 INCH HAIL
09/06/01   HOOKER                         REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

0911 PM    IMPERIAL                  NE   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
09/06/01   CHASE                          REPORTED BY KIML ASOS

0935 PM    19 W BROWNLEE             NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/06/01   CHERRY                         REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

0935 PM    19 W BROWNLEE             NE   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
09/06/01   CHERRY

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0935 PM    7 S  MADRID               NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/06/01   PERKINS                        REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

0955 PM    5 W AINSWORTH             NE   .75 INCH HAIL
09/06/01   BROWN                          REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

JZ