Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
154 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2001

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AN ONL...BBW...LBF AND OGA LINE AT 18Z WITH
FEW RETURNS ON RADAR MOSAIC IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND NARROW LINE OF CUMULUS FORMING SOUTH OF
FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST
OF THE FRONT WITH DRYLINE EAST OF AN OGA TO IML LINE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DISPLACEMENT OF LOWS AND
AREAL PRECIPITATION. BLEND OF ETA/AVN USED WITH COOLING TREND TO
OCCUR OVER NEXT 48 HOURS.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WEST WILL NEED SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THIS
EVENING WITH THE DRIER AVN SOLUTION ON TARGET. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH MID EVENING WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEYOND AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RETURN WEST
AROUND SURFACE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF H3 JET AS H5 WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
COOLER MID 30S IN THE NORTH.

MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES EAST. WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
SURFACE AND H85 FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LIFT NORTH. ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF TILL THE EVENING AS CONVERGENT FLOW INCREASES
AND MOISTURE RETURNS WEST AND GULF OPENS UP WITH H85 SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
FORECAST AREA AND PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

RATHER WET EXTENDED AS CONVERGENT FLOW EVOLVES INTO AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY TILL SUNDAY. THEN
SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT MOVES EAST AND EXITS
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 70S. THE H5 COLD AIR POCKET LIFTS NORTH AND CLIPS PART
OF THE PANHANDLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S.
WILL MODIFY WORDING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR RAIN VERSUS SHOWERS AND
LOWER HIGHS INTO THE 50S. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

.LBF...NONE.