Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
140 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH EVENING TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...18Z SYNOPSIS...
    THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
APPEARS TO BE STALLING ON ABOUT A HDE-OGA LINE. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE BEARS THAT
OUT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 6.7U IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER COMING FROM MONTANA AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS.
...MODELS...
    THE PREFERRED MODELS ARE THE ETA IN THE FIRST PERIODS, BLENDING
TO THE AVN AND MRF FOR THE EXTENDED.
   THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. BY 60 HOURS THOUGH, THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE AVN IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ETA
BRINGING IT ACROSS. IT IS ALSO COOLER WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MRF AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR AND SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THEIR PREVIOUS CYCLES. THIS MORNINGS AVN IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MRF AS FAR AS IT GOES THOUGH, THE MRF IS
COOLER DAYS 3 AND 4.

...FORECAST...
...TONIGHT...AS THE NEXT VORT MAX AND FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA...
850MB CONVERGENCE AND 800MB 2D-FRONTOGENESIS COMBINE WITH 700-300MB
DCVA TO GENERATE FORCING IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH 850MB BASED LIS FROM
-2C VTN/MHN TO -4C CDR/OGA, NEGATIVE ENERGY 25J/KG AND CAPE 700-
1200J/KG SOUTH AND WEST OF CDR/OGA/LBF...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. THE STORMS SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE REMAINS OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDENSATION DEFICITS OF 200MB THOUGH...CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE 100AGL AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY WITHOUT A PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. I WILL PROBABLY GO WITH NO MORE THAN 40 PERCENT
IN THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.
...MONDAY EVENING...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST
OF VTN-MHN-OGA WITH CAPE 1500-2500J/KG AND 850MB LIS -4C OR LOWER.
STILL, THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY. THE ONLY STRONG FORCING WOULD
BE ALONG A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, THERE IS ONLY WARM
ADVECTION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT. IF THE PARCELS ARE LIFTED ABOVE THE 7000FT AGL LFC, THAT MAY
BE ALL IT NEEDS TO GENERATE A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SO, I WILL INTRODUCE
POPS IN THE NORTH.
...TUESDAY EVENING...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE NORTH AND EAST
OF VTN-BBW WITH LIS -4C AND CAPE OF 800-1000J/KG. ONCE AGAIN,
THOUGH, THE GENERAL FORCING IS WEAK AND A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL BE
NEEDED TO LIFT PARCELS ABOVE THE 9000FT AGL LFC. ALSO, THE LOW LEVEL
CONDENSATION DEFICITS WILL BE 150-200MB. SO, I WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW.
...EXTENDED...WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, A
TROUGH/FRONT WILL BRING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ELEVATED 2D-
FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH A FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE PLAINS, MOISTURE IS STILL AVAILABLE
FROM CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST SO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEN, DRY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.LBF...NONE.

SPRINGER

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-122045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1128 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. THE LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP PREVENT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM BECOMING EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. MANY OF THE STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

DP