Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2001

...EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS/PRECIP AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPS THE MAIN
CHALLENGES...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY.
THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE AREA.
CU HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL SD
TO NORTH CENTRAL NE TO NEAR THEDFORD.

THE ETA HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NE
SO WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER THE PANHANDLE WEAKENS THIS EVENING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. WITH FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS...EXPECT VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY MID
LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WILL SWING ACROSS WESTERN SD WHERE
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FORM INTO AN MCS. THE 18Z ETA DIFFERS QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 12Z ETA RUN IN THAT THE 18Z ETA KEEPS THE MCS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SD WHILE THE 12Z RUN TOOK IT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NE LATE TONIGHT.  WILL STAY WITH THE 12Z ETA AND BRING IT
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE LATE GIVING THEM 50-60 POPS. WILL STAY WITH 30-
50 POPS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUE...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL. H8 TEMPS DROP
INTO THE TEENS SO WILL GO WITH TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NEAR 85 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LEFT OVER ENERGY
FROM THE MCS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST NE TUE MORNING SO WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UP THERE AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO
20 IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE AREA WITH
THE BEST CHC BEING ACROSS THE NORTH.  LOW CLOUDS FINALLY
DIMINISH WED.

IN THE EXTENDED...FLAT ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE
INTO THU AND FRI BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.  THEN THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE AREA SAT AND
SUN WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.  THE RIDGE IS PROGRESSIVE WITH A
TROF DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MON WHICH WILL BRING
BACK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LBF...NONE.

DDB

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-232045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1116 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2001

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...ALL OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF WYOMING WILL ENCOUNTER
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF A VALENTINE TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE. DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

OVERNIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO
ANTIOCH. DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER. WITH
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

CLB