Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
238 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED SIMILAR WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PAST EVENING.  HOWEVER...ALL MODELS
INITIALIZED TOO COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS WITH THE ETA CLOSEST OF ANY.
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ETA FOR FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD...BUT
WILL THEN USE A BLEND FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST.

TODAY...SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS KANSAS BACK INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIP UNTIL TONIGHT SO WILL
LEAVE ENTIRE CWA DRY TODAY.  WITH PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO MIDDLE 90S SOUTH LOOK
REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND RIDGE AXIS WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN WYOMING
BY EARLY EVENING.  STRONGEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WOULD FAVOR
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SOUTHWEST OF AN OSHKOSH TO NORTH PLATTE LINE
AND WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS IN THESE COUNTIES.  TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS ALL OF
CWA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS FA AS LOW BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS
KANSAS AND ANOTHER LOW DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  PRECIP
CHANCES NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAK CAP
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY AND SOME LIFT SHOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST CWA
WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH LOOK
REASONABLE FOR HIGHS.  LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF CWA LOOK GOOD
AS WELL.

EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED.

.LBF...NONE.

AWJ

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-041630-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
534 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2001

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE
WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM CAPABLE OF RAPIDLY REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

TODAY A SEMI STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH A SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO THE EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL.

KECK