Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Jackson, KY

Issued

Jul 3, 2001, 8:38 PM EDT (00:38 UTC)

Expired

Jul 3, 2001, 9:15 PM EDT

In force

37 min

Issued by

NWS Jackson, KY

Area

Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

Counties Breathitt County, KY, Perry County, KY

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

000 
WUUS53 KJKL 040038
SVRJKL

KYC025-193-040115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  PERRY COUNTY
  BREATHITT COUNTY

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 838 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
  JACKSON TO GAYS CREEK...OR FROM JACKSON TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
  HYDEN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  OVER SIKES AT 845 PM EDT.
  OVER HAZARD AT 850 PM EDT.
  OVER DIABLOCK AT 855 PM EDT.
  OVER JEFF AT 900 PM EDT.
  OVER CORNETTSVILLE AT 910 PM EDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH YOU SHOULD PREPARE 
FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING...MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM 
PASSES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW E}NFORCEMENT AGENCY. REQUEST 
THEY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE JACKSON WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST 
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3766 8353 3734 8354 3731 8338 3713 8321
          3711 8305 3720 8301 3725 8312 3751 8309

$$

DUSTY

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 3, 3:53 PM EDT, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CENTERS AROUND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION UP
UNTIL THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ONE WEAKENING MCS IS ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHERN KY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
WESTWARD IN SOUTHERN IN AND SOUTHERN IL. THUS FAR THE LESS ORGANIZED
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS REMAINED TO OUR SOUTH.

OUR ATMOSPHERE IS CERTAINLY UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE
RANGE OF -4 TO -7. IF THE CAP DOES NOT BREAK DUE TO TERRAIN
INFLUENCES EARLY THIS EVENING OR DUE TO WEAKENING MCS MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF AN MCS DURING THE NIGHT (AS
SHOWN BY THE MESO ETA). AM NOT COMFORTABLE UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
POPS...WHICH ARE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN BOTH
SETS OF MOS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE ETA SHOWS AN MCS EXITING THE AREA AT 12Z AND DOES
NOT GENERATE ANY MORE PRECIP BEFORE 00Z. HOWEVER..ALL THREE MODELS
(INCLUDING THE ETA) INDICATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE POSITION
UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. BOTH SETS OF MOS
GUIDANCE SHOW LIKELY POPS...AND WILL STICK WITH THE LIKELY POPS
ALREADY IN ZFPJKL.

UPPER JET SUPPORT WANES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO PASS UNTIL THURSDAY...SO WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

NGM MOS TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM ON WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF LOWER
LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS IN THE NGM ALLOWING MORE WARMING BEFORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WILL GO CLOSER TO AVN MAV TEMPS. OTHERWISE...
THE GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.JKL...NONE.

HAL

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2001Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.