Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2001

WARM...HUMID...SUMMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE. FCST PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES THRU THE WEEKEND AND FROPA ON MONDAY. THE
EXTENDED FCST THRU THE HOLIDAY ALSO LOOKS A BIT UNCERTAIN ALSO.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS FAR AS
LIFT AND QPF ARE CONCERNED. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE SIMILAR
HOWEVER. CLOSED LOW OVER MO/AR FINALLY SHEARS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WEST AND WEAKENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING
A W-NW FLOW TO SET UP. THIS ALLOWS YET ANOTHER FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE PICTURE BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER...FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
ETC. GENERALLY AGREE THAT RH WILL INCR SOMEWHAT KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY UNSTABLE. NO CAP NOTED. MODELS DONT AGREE TO WELL
ON TIMING OF VORT LOBES HOWEVER. PWS QUITE HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ALTHOUGH MAY LOWER A BIT WITH TIME. ALL IN ALL THE WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME....CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. PLANNING ON A 30 POP TONIGHT FOR THE WHOLE CWA WITH NO
TIMING AS THE ETA AND AVN MODELS ARE TRYING TO WORK SOME DECENT UVVS
AND VORT NORTHWARD UP THRU THE CWA. NGM A BIT WEAKER LOOKING. AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. RAINS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DUE TO HIGH PW AND
SLOW MOVEMENT. DESPITE HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY OPEN UP TEMP RANGE TO
60-65 AS CO-OPS EACH MORNING CONTINUE TO COME IN A LITTLE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE.

SAME SONG AND DANCE ON SAT AND SUN WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 80S. POPS 30-40. SUNDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING. 12Z AVN RUN NOW
EVEN FASTER THAN PREVIOUS 2-3 RUNS AND STRONGER WITH THE SFC HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO MC SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY 50 POPS.

WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO NGM/AVN MOS TEMPS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND
OF POPS.

THE EXTENDED LOOKS VERY INTERESTING YET DIFFICULT. OVERALL MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. AVN/MRF AND ECMWF SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
THE PAST COUPLE RUNS NOW IN BRINGING COLD FRONT #1 INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF REALLY HAMMERS IT THRU HERE AND
PUSHES IT WELL INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR
TUE AND WED AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT ZIPS INTO THE PICTURE BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF OVERALL SEEMS A BIT STRONG AND AGGRESSIVE. THE
MRF ON THE OTHER-HAND...BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND
THEN STALLS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS TN. THEN IT DEVELOPS AN ASSORTMENT
OF WAVES ON THE FRONT TO OUR WEST AND GENERATES ALL SORTS OF
PCPN/CONVECTION TUE-THUR. BY THU IT TOO PUSHES FRONT #2 INTO THE
CWA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PICTURE FOR FRIDAY. MRF
ALMOST SEEMS TO BE WISH-CASTING A LOT OF THINGS FOR MIDWEEK (ESP
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE YEAR) WHILE
THE ECMWF SEEMS VERY STRONG AND AGGRESSIVE FOR JULY. TO MUDDY UP THE
PICTURE A LITTLE MORE...THE NCEP MANUAL PROGS FROM YESTERDAY SEEM TO
BE MARCHING TO THEIR OWN DRUMMER AND KEEP THE FRONT UP NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES UNTIL 12Z WED...TOTALLY IGNORING THE FRONT MONDAY AND
ALL THE WAVE ACTION OF THE MRF FOR TUE-WED.

ALL IN ALL LEANING TOWARD A MODEL BLEND AND DISCOUNTING TO SOME
EXTENT THE NCEP MANUAL PROGS WHICH I USUALLY DONT DO. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA MON-THU AND DRY ON FRIDAY. NEW 12Z AVN RUN GOES
FOR DRY WX ON TUE BUT CHC SHRA AGAIN BY TUE NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THOSE EITHER AS IT MAY
BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREDICTED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

WILL TRY TO HAVE SOME WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO LONG. COMMENTS
WELCOME.

.JKL...NONE.

HALL