Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2001

50H CHART HAS LOW PRESS BTWN BWG AND BNA. NUMEROUS VORT MAXES
ROTATING AROUND CTR WHICH WILL SET OFF TSRA WHENEVVER THEY MEET AN
AREA OF LLVL CONVERGENCE. PCPN SPILLING NORTH ACROSS THE MTNS WITH
TSRA CROPPING UP IN AREAS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. TRAJECTORIES
PROJECT PCPN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND AM
CONCERNED THAT 40 POP MAY NOT BE ENUF. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TSRA ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET BUT IT COULD BE ANOTHER BUSY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT AND HARD TO ISOLATE ONE AS THE BETTER
MODEL. GENERALLY GOING WITH THE AVN ALTHOUGH THE ETA HAS LESS PCPN
FOR OUR CWFA FOR WED. SEE NO REASON FOR NOT GETTING WIDELY SCT TSRA
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BUT WILL GENRALLY GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC 20
POP FOR WED TO GIVE THE BROKEN RECORD A REST. THU THE LOW SHOULD BE
FAR ENUF WEST OR SW TO LIMIT IT/S EFFECTS BUT THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
KICK IN WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THU PM DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA SET UP AGAIN WITH THE NEXT BREAK IN PCPN
AFTER THE WEEKEND. 50H FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND A COOL FNT DROPS INTO A DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
U/S. FNT TO PUSH THRU KY MON MORN WITH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING SO WILL
CURRENTLY FCST MON AND TUE AS DRY.  WED COULD SEE SOME PCPN AS THE
NEXT S/W DECENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WRN GT LKS.

GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS WITHIN REASON AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
CHANGES. HIGH TEMPS LOOK 1 OR 2 DEG TOO WARM AND POPS SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE FOR THE AFTERNOONS.

.JKL...NONE.

DUSTY