Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2001

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLEARLY DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP RESIDENCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL BUT A LITTLE
TOO COLD AT 850 MB FROM THE MRF AND COULD MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL  NOT BE AS COLD AS EARLIER THOUGH...HOWEVER TEMPS AND HEIGHT
ARE INITIALIZED WELL WITH MRF AND COULD REFLECT AT LOWER LEVELS IN
THE FUTURE.

THINK THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE TONIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
DAY TOMORROW.  COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING PRECIP AFTERWARDS.  MIGHT SPLIT THE FA INTO 2
GROUPS...WITH WEST BEING WORDED AS MAINLY IN THE MORNING FOR
RAINFALL.  PRETTY MUCH THE SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TEMPS STAYING NEARLY STEADY ALL DAY.  MOS IS BASICALLY GOING
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE THIS.  ALSO TEMPS LOOK PRETTY CLOSE.  HAVE TO DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO FOR POPS LATER ON AS UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH.  WE WILL PRETTY
MUCH HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY...AS BY MONDAY WE WILL STILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD EASILY SWING THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL.

CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO NOT
ISSUE ONE CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT OUR FFG IS STILL QUITE HIGH.

AGAIN...EXTENDED WILL BE WET AS LOW IS SLOW TO MOVER AND I SEE
NOTHING UPSTREAM TO HELP FORCE IT ALONG...AND IN FACT MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW.

GOING TO TRY AND WRAP THINGS UP EARLY TODAY AS SVR WX COULD OCCUR 5
SOON THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.JKL...NONE.

HEINLEIN

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-220400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA INDICATES THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A POWERFUL AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING A COLD
FRONT INTO KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE FRONT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE SOME RUNOFF
PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

SKY-WARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATES.

PELTON