Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
JKL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWIRL OF A WEAKENING MCV. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE LOSS OF HEATING
KILLS MOST OF THEM OFF. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE BENIGN. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS
GO AROUND. THEY ALL TAKE THE REMAINS OF THE MCV SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THAT...SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDS INTO
KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A POWERFUL CLOSING OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THE AVN IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE
THAN THE OTHER TWO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS LOW CUTS OFF
AND TAKES UP RESIDENCY OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...THE MESO LOW WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MELDS WITH AN ARRIVING WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER. AS THE UPPER LOW PLUNGES INTO THE STATES A POWERFUL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH A FULL LATITUDE COLD FRONT HEADING FOR
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PM MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN THE STEEPENING LAPS RATES AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY SLOTTING LATER TUESDAY...
KENTUCKY WILL BE PLACED IN THE WRAP AROUND...LOW CLOUDS AREA OF THE
LARGE LOW THAT PARKS OVER THE NORTHEAST.

IN THE EXTENDED THE UNSEASONABLE COLD AND DEEP LOW WILL KEEP THINGS
CLOUDY...DAMP AND COOL.

NGM MOS NUMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND LOOK REASONABLE SO
WILL NOT STRAY FAR.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE SHORTLY IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL. WITH THE
MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT NOW TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW
THE FFA OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO EXPIRE WITH ZONE ISSUANCE.

.JKL...NONE.

GREIF