Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2001

FCST PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO STEM AROUND POPS AND TO SOME EXTENT TEMPS.

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ALLOWING TROFFY AND UNSETTLED WX TO MOVE IN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE IS HANGING
PRETTY TUFF ALTHOUGH AMPLIFYING MORE TO THE N/NE. SFC CHART SHOWS
COLD/WARM FRNT MORE OR LESS BISECTING KY FROM NW-SE. FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MOVING MUCH AT THIS TIME AND DONT THINK IT WILL FOR A
LITTLE WHILE. SAT PICS SHOWING SKIES TO BE A LITTLE MORE CLEAR THAN
EXPECTED AND SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY. HOWEVER THE LAST FEW IR
FRAMES SHOWING THE CI TOPS COOLING AND THICKENING A BIT.

THE ETA MODELS CONTINUE TO HIT THE POPS HARD TONIGHT AND NOW THE NGM
HAS JUMPED ON THE BAND WAGON. THE MODELS ALSO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
DIV ALOFT AND STRONG OMEGAS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
HAPPENING THE PAST FEW DAYS...I AM GROWING INCREASINGLY SKEPTICAL
AND FEEL THAT THE ETA'S/NGM ARE OVERDONE AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT. THE
AVN HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OF LATE AND THINK THAT MAY BE THE SAFER
ROUTE TO GO OR A BLEND OF THE MODELS BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
AVN. AT THIS TIME I AM PLANNING ON GOING BELOW MOS POPS TONIGHT AND
WILL TRIM BACK POPS TOMORROW ALSO. NOT SURE JUST YET HOW MUCH I PLAN
ON TRIMMING BUT WILL GO UNDER A LITTLE AT LEAST. THE BETTER
PLACEMENT OF HIGHER POPS TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND W KY
AND NOT IN THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A GOOD SOAKING TYPE RAIN
APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY AND TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE.

BOTH AVN/NGM MOS TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL TOMORROW AND PLAN ON
BUMPING UP TEMPS A GOOD CAT. CANT SEE IT BEING THAT COOL UNLESS WE
STAYED SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND IT RAINED ALL DAY LONG. TEMPS
OVER AR/MO ARE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S AND THEY HAVE BEEN
UNDER THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. THINKING THAT MID 70S MAY BE
THE BETTER ROUTE FOR NOW. PLAN ON RUNNING WITH CHC POPS TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THEN WILL GO WITH CAT POPS TUE AND LIKELY TUE NIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL DEVIATE A LITTLE FROM THE PREV FCST PACKAGE.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME AM SHOWERS ON WED...THEN GO DRY FOR THU
AS RIDGING ON THE SFC AND WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND FASTER WITH TIME THOUGH
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FAIRLY
QUICKLY. WILL GO WITH CHC TSRA/SHRA FRI. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUN DRY
FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY MAY BE IN THE AREA
SAT.

AS VSTATED ABOVE I PLAN ON GOING UNDER MOS POPS FOR THE FIRST 2
PERIODS. ALSO PLAN ON GOING ABOVE GUID TEMPS TOMORROW.

WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER SDFOZFJKL. COORDINATION WELCOME.

.JKL...NONE.

HALL