Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2001

CURRENTLY...STRONG LOW (REMAINS OF ALLISON) STILL SHIFTING NE...NOW
JUST NW OF KMOB. WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW TO CENTRAL
GA...THEN TO THE CENTRAL SC COAST. 3 MAIN TSTM AREAS...ONE JUST S OF
WARM FRONT...ONE LINE NEAR KTLH...AND A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING SW
FROM KPNS INTO THE GULF. TSTMS NOW BEGINNING TO POP AROUND KGNV WITH
GREATER SFC HEATING.

MODELS...12Z MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND
WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF LOW. AVN LOOKS TO BE ABOUT THE
BEST. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN LOW AS IT SHIFT OFF TO
THE NE...REACHING A POINT W OF KATL BY THIS TIME TUE...THEN NEAR THE
SC/NC LINE BY 18Z WED.

PUBLIC...FOCI OF PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(WHICH WILL SHIFT N) AND ALONG LINES ORIENTED WITH BEST DYNAMICS
FROM THE LOW. THIS MEANS BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE N AND W
ZONES...WITH MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTION THE FARTHER S AND E YOU
GO. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY ALONG SAME LINES OF PREVIOUS FCST (AND
NEAR MEX GUIDANCE). EVEN THO INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL STILL MOVE NEAR 15
KTS...A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER THE NW ZONES WILL
NECESSITATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA. WITH CURRENT
WATCHES SHIFTING E...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORMS FOR ROTATION...ESP
EXTREME W AREAS.

EXTENDED...PATTERN WILL SHIFT BACK TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TSTM
REGIME BY WED AND THU. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED.

MARINE...MODELS LATCHING ONTO WIND INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH LOW. WILL CONTINUE THE BREAK THAT WAS
INSTITUTED THIS AM WITH HIGHER WINDS (AND BETTER POPS) OVER THE N
LEG. WILL INTRODUCE SCEC IN N LEG EITHER LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT.

PRELIM...
AMG 71/85/71/87 7745
SSI 73/85/72/88 4634
JAX 72/89/72/90 4534
GNV 70/90/71/90 3424 31

.JAX...
.FL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.

CARROLL

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-112200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1155 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2001

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.  THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.  THE HEAVIEST AND MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF A LAKE CITY TO
WAYCROSS LINE. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A
FEW STORMS. THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 20 MPH.

MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS SO SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.