Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 PM EST THU MAR 15 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #69 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AS WELL AS MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WILL
DROP WIND ADVISORY FOR GA COUNTIES DUE TO RELAXATION OF LOW-LEVEL
JET...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLORIDA ZONES.

BROAD LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL GA EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (I.E. RIGHT-
REAR QUADRANT OF POTENT UPPER JET) IS EJECTING NORTH...WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS PROVIDING
NEEDED INGREDIENTS FOR SUSTAINING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THEN FORECAST TO STALL ALONG OR NEAR A FLAGLER BEACH-
CEDAR KEY LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUR WEATHER PLAYER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS ITS MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
A NUTSHELL...TYPICAL SPRING-TIME WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GARDEN
VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER FL COUNTIES.

WINDS/SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THUS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT.

PRELIM
AMG 59/76/49/70 2100
SSI 60/75/52/70 3211
JAX 62/80/54/72 4321
GNV 63/79/55/71 4322 16

.JAX...
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GAZ153-154-164>166 UNTIL 6 PM EST.
     RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR ALTAMAHA RIVER@CHARLOTTE & BAXLEY.
     SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FLZ020>025-030>033-035-036 UNTIL 6 PM.s
     WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES UNTIL SUNSET.
     SCA FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

ZAPPE/ZIBURA

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-152300-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
100 PM EST THU MAR 15 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL 6 PM...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL OVER GEORGIA WILL
AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF MINOR LOW LAND FLOODING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH
INCLUDES CAMDEN...GLYNN...AND CHARLTON COUNTIES...AND FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ZIBURA