Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2001

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE AT KJAX REACHED 85 DEGREES THE PAST
HOUR...AND BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING CU SHOULD BEGIN FORMING AT A
PRETTY GOOD CLIP. RADAR SHOW AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THIS IS PRETTY
MUCH THE CAST...WITH A GOOD CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN DURING THE PAST HOUR...AND SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER COLUMBIA AND NASSAU COUNTIES. EXPECT IT TO
BECOME PRETTY ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. BASED ON THE MORNING SOUNDING
HOWEVER THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVERS
AND HAVE LITTLE DOWN BURST POTENTIAL...SO EXPECT ANY PROBLEM WHICH
DEVELOP TO BE MAINLY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
PROBABLY STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE WEEK. THE
DRIER...COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DROP DAY TIME HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE UPPER
50S AND MID 60S BY MID WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE TO A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCE TO DROP
TO NEAR ZERO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH.

PRELIM
AMG 68/87/68/84 3445
SSI 73/86/73/84 2555
JAX 70/86/71/85 2445
GNV 70/88/71/86 4555 33

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

SCOTT